How growing alcohol price gap between Scotland and England is a gift to organised crime

Organised criminals will realise there’s money to be made in moving alcohol from England to Scotland, and with it will come drugs and other illegal goods.....

This is the subject of my latest Scotsman column, published on 15th October 2024.

Unintended consequences are the nightmare of all planners. Trying to foresee the pitfalls, what could possibly go wrong, is or should be the subject of some hard thinking before the policy change lever is pulled. There are truly unforeseeable consequences and then there are fairly obvious traps – and the two are quite different.

I was thinking about this recently as the new minimum price was set for the sale of a unit of alcohol in Scotland. The price hike – a substantial increase from 50 pence to 65 pence per unit – means there is now a substantial price difference either side of the Border. For example, a bottle of vodka will now be £5 more expensive.

Scotland’s alcohol problem

However, in fairness there is a substantial problem to address. For centuries now, alcohol has taken a heavy toll on the lives and health of Scots. Amid our recent fixation with drugs, we have sometimes forgotten the old enemy, alcohol.

Yet while Scotland’s drug deaths are appallingly high, our alcohol-related deaths are consistently higher. Then there’s the link between alcohol and violence of all stripes, domestic and public.

This year Scotland’s alcohol-related deaths have been higher than ever, so it is for good reason that our government is taking action. This is not a uniquely Scottish problem, of course, many countries struggle with alcohol and there are some well-evidenced responses to address the problem.

The World Health Organisation recommends a three-strand approach to curb high alcohol use, focussing on price, availability, and advertising. To its credit, the Scottish Government is trying to follow the evidence of what works, at least in part. The price and advertising aspects are being addressed even though they are unpopular.

Only the supply, or rather the over-supply, remains untouched with every corner shop seemingly licensed to sell booze along with the bread and milk. Still, two out of three at least indicates intent.

Mistake to grow illegal markets

But now, with the price differential on either side of the Border growing, another factor creeps in – criminal opportunity! With a price difference of at least £5 per bottle of spirits, it’s getting near the point that it’s profitable for a man in a white van to shift a few loads north.

So what you may say, small beer in the great scheme of things but it all adds up and we should do nothing that fuels the grey economy. The white van that ships the cheap vodka also brings dodgy meat, knock-off sim cards and the vapes spiced with drugs.

It’s all part of organised crime and illegal markets. Money, drugs, guns, exploited people – it’s all connected and we should do our utmost not to nourish the roots.

Tackling the scourge of alcohol in Scotland is necessary and we should support evidence-based approaches, even when they are unpopular. But the price differential must be carefully judged so we do not fall into the trap of unintended consequences.

The difference between alcohol prices north and south of the Border is now at a critical level. Raising it was a calculated risk – let’s hope that someone has done the calculations.

Click here to view my article on the Scotsman's website.